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Nifty Intraday


Reason for Consolidation: Even market had witnessed heavy short covering lead rally, by congress alliance’s win in West Bengal, Assam and in Kerala state elections… Same time we must realize that FII’s are being net seller throughout the month, seems they will continue to be on selling only… We can’t expect any major upside further, when FII’s and global cues are not in positive mode.

Already FII’s are net seller for a considerable value, now we are going to face oil hike price in coming week, if it happen that will dampen our market sentiment heavily… Another important event is that many more notable persons from political parties and their companies possible to get arrested in 2G issue by next week end… This may give severe pressure to central government and it may lead for some great misunderstanding between congress lead central government in short term… Recent cool off in commodity prices also given some support for market this week, it is expected to go up again if oil price hike takes place…

Technically Further crash in market will take place, if Nifty Spot maintains below 5459 levels… now we can expect some pullback from current level, only if Nifty Spot able to hold above 5603 levels… Any oil price hike, 2G issue and further increase in commodity prices may give profit booking to 5334-5271-5226 levels in coming weeks…
As mentioned yesterday, Nifty has given breakout from yet another bearish pattern which can take Nifty to 5450 where it has a major support of the "Flag" pattern in which it has been moving for last few days. If the support of 5450 is violated then Nifty may open doors for lower targets of 4900-5000 for coming days. On the bullish side the resistance of 5600-5625 will play an important role. If the level of 5625 is violated with volumes Nifty may be heading for 5700-5750 in coming days.  

Nifty opened on a slightly positive note of 5-10 points only despite the fact that US markets were positive & Asian markets were very narrow & mixed. As the election results poured market started rising sharply as UPA & its allies were winning in 4 out of 5 states. Nifty touched an intra day high of 5605 & declined sharply in last 45 minutes by more than 70 points before recovering modestly to close at 5544 about 58 points above the previous close.

As far as, extreme short term charts are concerned, Nifty took perfect support at 5472 (support expected at 5480) & bounced  back sharply to touch the top level of the "Flag" pattern at 5605 before declining marginally. Now Nifty Intraday is locked in a range of 5480 & 5610 & breakout on either side is capable of giving a move of 100-125 points in near term. Since the pattern is bearish the odds are in favor of bears but at the same time victory of UPA & its allies in state election can postpone the decline by few days. In that case Nifty can touch 5675-5725 in coming days before heading downwards.

As far as bar reversal in Daily charts are concerned, stocks like Nifty, Nifty Futures, SBI, ICICI Bank, Reliance Ind., L&T, ITC, M&M, HDFC Bank, IDFC have given "Upward Bar Reversal" while Infosys, BPCL, Sun Pharma, HCL Tech., IOC, Glenmark Pharma, Syndicate Bank, Biocon, Bombay Rayon, Jyothy Lab etc. have given "Downward Bar Reversal". Stocks like CMC, Raj Television, Gemini Communication, Spentex Ind., Vaibhav Gems, Castrol (I), Shanti Gears, Vikash Metal, Surya Pharma, Bharat Gears have shown  spurt during the day with unusually high volumes.

Sector wise, most of the stocks like Camlin, Rain Commodity, KGL, Amar Remedies, GSPL, Sun TV, Optocircuit, Adserve, Orbit Corp., Amtek Auto etc. were among the top gainers of the day,  to close in positive territory whereas stocks like Atul Inds., Acropetal, ARSS Infra, Fame India, Geodesic, NEC Life, Tanla, Phoenix Ltd., Jindal Saw etc. attracted profit booking at higher levels & closed in red territory. As far as, A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bulls in the ratio of 9:5 with 909 advances & 521 declines during the day.

In nutshell, state election results brought new life to stock market after IIP numbers & inflation data on Thursday the 12th May had brought Nifty down by nearly 100 points. Nifty moved up sharply as the results came in & touched the top level of the pattern around 5605 & took corrective decline. Now the pattern has trading range of 5475 & 5605. 

Breakout on either side can give a move of 100-125 points in near term. It is better to watch these levels carefully & trade accordingly. The best strategy is to concentrate on stocks which have given fresh bullish breakouts in hourly/daily charts for quick gains in next few days.

Current Planetary Position  - Astrologically, in Transit, 2 Planets i.e. Sun (In Krittka Constellation, ruled by Sun ownself) and Retrograde Ketu is placed in Taurus, Retrograde Saturn  (In Hasta Constellation, ruled by Inimical Moon) is placed in Virgo. 

Transiting Moon is in Libra. Retrograde Rahu is placed in Scorpio. Pluto (Retrograde) is placed in Sagittarius. Neptune is placed in Aquarius. Uranus (Direct)  is placed in Pisces. 4 Planets i.e Mars (In Ashvani Constellation, ruled by Friendly Ketu),  Jupiter  (In Ashvani Constellation, ruled by Neutral Ketu), Mercury (In Ashvani Constellation, ruled by Neutral Ketu) and Venus (In Ashvani Constellation, ruled by Friendly Ketu) are placed in Aries.

Moon will be transiting through Libra, Scorpio and Sagittarius during this week. 4 Planets are in retrograde motion as on 16th May 2011 i.e. Saturn, Rahu, Ketu and Pluto and Mars are transiting through it's own sign.
Expected Weekly Movement -In totality, keeping all the planetary configuration, bullish and bearish aspects in mind, Jupiter-Uranus conjunction on 04th January 2011 was the beginning of change of trend when Nifty touched an Intraday High of 6181 and Sensex touched 20664 (On 03rd January 2011).The decline continued for a month and short term trend reversal came with conjunction of Venus with Pluto in Sagittarius. 

Market remained sideways after that for a month or so and again a bounce came as soon as Sun conjunction with Uranus in Pieces took place on 21st March 2011 when Nifty was 5348 and Sensex was 17792.Jupiter opposition on 28th March coupled with Sun-Pluto aspect applied brakes to the sharp rally which took place between 21st - 28th March. 

During next week, it may start with the hangover of negative aspect... For Paid Subscribers Only  (This is preliminary analysis of the market which will be updated everyday for day and swing traders through live market updates and trading calls. Note- Most of the astrological aspects work plus/minus few hours so it is better to follow live updates before entering into any positional trades)  .
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